Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, the Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation
Russian Academy of Sciences
( founded in 1939 )
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Solar Activity Forecast

2018/01/15

      Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
              Highlights on 08- 14.01.2018,
               Forecast on 15 - 22.01.2018,
          Carrington Rotation 2199 (30,94.12.2017)
          Earth above the ecliptic (0.6 - 0.1) deg. 
             (S30 - N30 is geoeffectiveness zone)

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY WAS ON THE VERY LOW LEVEL AND THE SUN 
WAS SPOTLESS AFTER 12.01 (6 - IN 2018). THE ESTIMATED, MOST LI-
KELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER  IN THE 
INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERIOD W= 004+4/-4 (Wn= 007+5
/-5). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK ONE SMALL AND QUITE SUNSPOT GROUP 
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WITH HIGH PROBABILITY WILL
BE ON THE VERY LOW LEVEL. LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELA-
TIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT 
WEEK IS W = 010+10/-10.  

THE FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL.NO EJECTION OF SOLAR
FILAMENT AND CORONAL MASS EJECTION HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.

----------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES to   tm    te   local.     Class   E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV   CME
                                 X-ray/p  J/m-2
DSF     to      te  localization   l  .  Fl    AR    CME/to
---------------------------------------------------------------------
NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVEL.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
---------------------------------------------------------------------
  sign   N end   E end   S end  W end    Sch    EE   R  G  Space Obser.
CH  -  S03L241 S10L246  S12L243 S05L239  <2000 10.01  8     SDO, SOHO...
H  +  N28L261 N05L281  N02L271 N22L251        12.01  8 G1  SDO, SOHO...
CH  -  N21L184 N05L194  N01L189 N09L164        20.01  3 G0  SDO, SOHO...
Last CH - from south polar CH family.
Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri-
dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data;
R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the 
Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on
the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

AFTER 02.12/17 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG-
NETIC FIELD. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- EARTH SHOULD BE PASSED 0N 16.01.

   08     09     10     11     12     13     14    
Wus      013    013    011    012    000    000    000
F10.7    070    071    070    071    071    071    071
bcg    2.8   3.0   A3.2   A3.1   A3.1   A3.0   A3.0      GOES
Sp       010    010    010    010    000    000    000   msh   
N         1             1                            
IMF       +     ~/+     ~      +      ~     +/~    +       DSCOVR   
>2   3.5E+5 1.5E+5 4.4E+5 6.8+5 4.8+5 9.9+5 1.5E+6     GOES
Ie>2                                                      pfu 
Ap        9      10     4      2      3      6      14    n  
Dst                                                       n KIOTO
Amsc      8      9      3      2      3      7      11    n IZMIRAN 
--------------------------------------------------------------------
>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT HAS NOT 
OBSERVED. 
 
NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR-
BIT IS EXPECTED 16-20.01.


GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS UNSETTLED AND QUIET IN THE PERIOD.  

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION  IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND  QUIET.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru
                                                          V. Ishkov