Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation
Russian Academy of Sciences
( founded in 1939 )
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Solar Activity Forecast

2019/04/15

      Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
                Highlights on 8 - 14.04.2019,
                 Forecast on 15 - 22.04.2019,
    Carrington Rotation 2215, 2216 (12,5.03; 08,8.04.2019)    
          Earth out of ecliptic (-6.9 - -6.6) deg. 
          (S30 - N20 is zone of geoeffectiveness)

 THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS AT THE LOW LEVEL. ESTIMATED, 
MOST LIKELY  WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN 
THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD W = 8+1/-1 (Wn= 12+1/-1). 
ON THE SOLAR VISIBLE DISC ONE MIDDLE SIZE SUNSPOT GROUP IN WHICH NU-
MEROUS THE X-RAY "B AND A"-FLARES WERE OCCURRED.

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY  WILL AT VERY LOW LEVEL. LI-
KELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE  OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE IN-
TERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W=010+1/-10. 

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVELS. NO FILAMENT EJECTION AND 
TWO CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (10.4) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. 
-------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
        to   tm    te   local.    Class   E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV CME
                                X-ray/p   J/m-2
DSF     to     te  localization   l  .  Fl    AR    CME/to
--------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT LOW AND MIDDLE LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
  sign N end   E end   S end   W end    Sch    EE   R   G  Space Obser. 
Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on 
https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; 
EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. 
G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. 
A-active geomagnetic condition.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

 AFTER 27.03/17 UT EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNE-
TIC FIELD  WITH OFTEN CHANGE OF SECTOR SIGN. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ 
THE EARTH MUST PASS 16.04.
----------------------------------------------------------------------- 
APRIL    08     09     10     11     12     13     14   APRIL
Wus     012    012    013    013    014    014    011
F10.7   079    079    078    079    077    078    075
bcg   6.0   6.0   2.2   4.1   2.4   2.8  <1.0  GOES
Sp      250    300    350    260    300    300    250  msh   
N                                                   
IMF      -      -      -      -      -      -      -   DSCOVR   
>2  1.8E+8 1.3E+8 2.5E+7 9.0+7 9.9+7 1.7E+8 1.9+8  GOES
Ie>2  23078   4297   3730   2706   2838   4636   4476  pfu 
Ap       13     11     14     7      9      8      4   n  
Dst                                                    n KIOTO
Amsc     13     9      13     7      8      8      4   n IZMIRAN 
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

HIGH (and after 2.03 - extremal) THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX 
AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGAN 5.04/1400 UT AND 8 - 15.04 HAVE BEEN OB-
SERVED.   
 
NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX  AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR-
BIT IS EXPECTED 15-16.04.

 GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION AT MEDIUM LATITUDES UP REMAINS QUIET AND UNSET-
TLED.

NEXT PERIOD THE MOST PROBABLE QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDI-
TION IS EXPECTED.
 
HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru
                                                          V. Ishkov