Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation
Russian Academy of Sciences
( founded in 1939 )
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Solar Activity Forecast

2018/11/19

 Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
                 Highlights on 12 - 18.11.2018,
                  Forecast on 19 - 26.11.2018,
   Carrington Rotation 2210, 2211 (26,87.10; 23,17.11.2018)
            Earth out of ecliptic (+5.32 - +5.04) deg. 
             (S23 - N24 is zone of geoeffectiveness)

THE SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN HAVE REMAINED  AT THE LOW 
AND VERY LOW. ESTIMATED,  MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE 
RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PE-
RIOD W= 008+1/-1 (Wn= 012+2/-1). THERE ARE TWO SMALL SUNSPOT GROUP 
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED BY TURNS.

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL STAY AT A VERY LOW LE-
VEL. LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN 
THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W= 010+10/-10. 

THE FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON THE VERY LOW LEVEL. TWO SOLAR FILAMENT 
EJECTIONS AND TWO CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
        to   tm    te   local.    Class   E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV CME
                                X-ray/p   J/m-2
DSF     to      te  localization   l  .  Fl    AR    CME/to
13.11 >1436 >0630  N45W25L096       7 
14.11 >2240 >1431  S11W15L094       5
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
------------------------------------------------------------------------
  sign   N end   E end   S end  W end    Sch    EE   R  G  Space Obser.
Sch - CH Square in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on 
https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; 
EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. 
G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. 
A-active geomagnetic condition.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

AFTER 15.11/1030 UT EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNE-
TIC FIELD,  BUT THE SIGN OF THE SECTOR  IS VERY UNSTABLE. NEXT STABLE 
SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH MUST PASS 5.12.

--------------------------------------------------------------------- 
NOVEMBER 12     13     14     15     16     17     18   NOVEMBER
Wus     015    011    011    013    014    013    014  
F10.7   068    067    068    068    071    073    072  
bcg  <1.0  <1.0  <1.0  <1.0   1.0   1.7   1.5     GOES
Sp      010    010    010    020    020    060    060      msh   
N        1                    1               
IMF      -      -      -     -/+     +      +      +     DSCOVR   
>2  3.6E+7 7.1E+7 8.0E+7 6.7+7 6.3+7 4.6E+7 3.8E+7    GOES
Ie>2                                                      pfu 
Ap       9      4      3      2      2      1      3      n  
Dst                                                       n KIOTO
Amsc     8      4      6      3      3      2      3      n IZMIRAN 
--------------------------------------------------------------------
>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

 THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN
5.11/1635 UT AND 5 - 17.11 HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.  
 
 NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS 
ORBIT IS NOT EXPECTED.

THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION REMAINED UNSETTLED AND QUITE.

 THE NEXT WEEK IS MOST PROBABILITY OF QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNE-
TIC CONDITION. 
 
HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru
                                                          V. Ishkov