Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation
Russian Academy of Sciences
( founded in 1939 )
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Solar Activity Forecast

2018/07/09

      Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
                 Highlights on 02 - 08.07.2018,
                 Forecast on 09 - 16.07.2018,
    Carrington Rotation 2005, 2006 (12,7.06; 09,9.07.2018) 
            Earth out of ecliptic (-0.2 - +0.2) deg. 
            (S25 - N25 is zone of geoeffectiveness)

 THE SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN  WAS ON THE VERI LOW
LEVEL: THE SUN  WAS SPOTLESS (99 DAYS IN CURRENT YEAR). ESTI-
MATED,  MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUN-
SPOT NUMBER  IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM  (old) FOR PERIOD W=
000 (Wn= 000). 

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE LOW AND
VERY LOW LEVELS. LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE  OF THE RELATIVE 
SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT 
WEEK IS W=010+10/-10. 

THE FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON THE VERY LOW LEVEL. 3 EJECTA OF SO-
LAR FILAMENT AND 2 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
        to   tm    te   local.    Class   E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV CME
                                X-ray/p   J/m-2
DSF     to      te  localization   l  .  Fl    AR    CME/to
04.07 >1604  >0506  N21E22L092      14                    
04.07 >2246  >1653  N14E10L080      12 
05.07 >1555  >0502  N29W02L054      12 
07.09 >1650  >0455  N34W40L350       5
08.07 >0929  >2340  S29W29L348       5        
------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
---------------------------------------------------------------------
  sign   N end   E end   S end  W end    Sch    EE    R  G  Space Obser.

Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri-
dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data;
R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the 
Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on
the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

 AFTER 07.07/0520 UT EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAG-
NETIC FIELD. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH MUST PASS 14.07.

JULY    02     03     04     05     06     07     08   JULY
Wus    000    000    000    000    000    000    000 
F10.7  067    068    068    068    071    072    072 
bcg  1.5   1.4   1.0    0.0  1.8   A3.7   3.7  GOES
Sp     000    000    000    000    000    000    000  msh   
N                                       
IMF     -      -      -     -/+    +/~    +/-     -   DSCOVR   
>2 2.3E+8 2.0E+8 6.2+7 1.8E+7 5.8+6 9.2+6 1.3E+7  GOES
Ie>2  4597   4443   3066   1221    183    305          pfu 
Ap      3      3      4      17     7      5      3    n  
Dst                                                    n KIOTO
Amsc    3      4      5      18     10     5      5    n IZMIRAN 
--------------------------------------------------------------------
>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGIN- 
NING AT 24/1800 UT AND HAVE OBSERVED 24.06 - 5.07.  
 
 NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS 
ORBIT IS NOT EXPECTED.

THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS ACTIVE 5.07 THE CENTER IN BOULDER OB-
SERVED INTENSIVE (G1) 9 HOURS SUBSTORM. ACCORDING THE IZMIRAN DATA - 
IT WAS THE MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G0, Ams = 27, dur.= 15 h).  IT IS 
REACTION OF THE MAGNETOSPHERE TO PASSING OF SECTOR BOUNDARY OF THE 
INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD. IN OTHER DAYS GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION 
WAS QUITE AND UNSETTLED.

THE NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARILY
QUITE AND UNSETTLED LEVELS  BUT 09.07  POSSIBLE ACTIVE LEVEL DUE TO
INFLUENCE FROM THE AFORMENTIONED FILAMENTS ACTIVITY FROM 4-5 JULY. 

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru
                                                          V. Ishkov