Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation
Russian Academy of Sciences
( founded in 1939 )
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Solar Activity Forecast

2018/09/17

      Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
                 Highlights on 10 - 16.09.2018,
                  Forecast on 17 - 24.09.2018,
           Carrington Rotation 2208 (02,3.09.2018)
            Earth out of ecliptic (+7.24 - +7.18) deg. 
            (S18 - N30 is zone of geoeffectiveness)

 THE SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN HAVE REMAINED AT THE VERY 
LOW (SPOTLESS -146 DAYS IN THIS YEAR). ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEK-
LY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER  IN THE INTERNATIO-
NAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD W= 002+6/-2 (Wn= 004+9/-4). IN THE SOU-
THERN HEMISPHERE OF A VISIBLE SOLAR DISK 11-12.09  A SMALL SUNSPOT 
GROUP HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. 

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL STAY AT A VERY LOW. LI-
KELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER  IN THE IN-
TERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W= 010+10/-10. 

 THE FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON THE VERY LOW LEVEL. NO SOLAR FILAMENTS 
AND TWO CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
        to   tm    te   local.    Class   E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV CME
                                X-ray/p   J/m-2
DSF     to      te  localization   l  .  Fl    AR    CME/to
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
------------------------------------------------------------------------
  sign   N end   E end   S end  W end    Sch    EE   R  G  Space Obser.
CH  -  N18L354 S15L252  S18L239 N05L228  4.3% 12.09  R4     SDO, ACE...
CH  -  N30L244 N20L259  N15L234 N18L232  1.4% 11.09  R1     SDO, ACE...
CH  -  Pn      N40L294  N32L259 N40L244  7.9% 12.09  R3     SDO, ACE...
CH  -  N18L207 S25L244  S35L205 N15L194  8.1% 17.09  R2     SDO, ACE...
CH  -  N50L109 N40L104  N30L141 N35L137  0.1% 29.09  R1     SDO, ACE...
The first two CH 8.09 formed from one enormous CH, which are separated 
by the new AR.
Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri-
dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data;
R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the 
Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on
the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

 AFTER 09.09/0630 UT EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG-
NETIC FIELD, BUT THE SIGN OF THE SECTOR IS UNSTABLE. NEXT SECTOR BOUN-
DARY +/- THE EARTH MUST PASS 17.09. 
------------------------------------------------------------------
SEPTEMBER 10     11     12     13     14     15     16   SEPTEMBER
Wus      000    014    011    000    000    000    000 
F10.7    069    069    070    070    069    069    069
bcg   <1.0  <1.0  <1.0  <1.0  <1.0  <1.0  <1.0  GOES
Sp       000    010    000    000    000    000    000  msh   
N                1                            
IMF       +      +      +      +      +      +      +   DSCOVR   
>2   2.2E+7 9.4E+6 4.7+7 1.5E+8 9.8+8 1.2+9 1.5E+9  GOES
Ie>2     861    366   1914   4190   4290  39830  31051  pfu 
Ap        29     39     9      17     18     8      5   n  
Dst                                                     n KIOTO
Amsc      22     25     11     16     15     10     6   n IZMIRAN 
------------------------------------------------------------------
>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

 THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN 
AT 12.09/1410 AND 12 - 16.09 HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.  
 
 NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS 
ORBIT IS EXPECTED 17-24.09.

MAJOR MAGNETIC STORM (G2, Ams= 53, dur.= 24 h.) ACCORDING DATA OF   
BOULDER AND MINOR (G1, Ams=34, dur.=30 h.) ACCORDING IZMIRAN DATA 
HAVE BEEN ODSERVED 10-11.09 AS A RESULT OF TOTAL INFLUENCE OF DIS-
TURBANCE OF FILAMENT EJECTIONS 6.09  AND  EARTH's  PASSING OF THE 
HIGH-SPEED STREAM  OF THE SOLAR TRANS-EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE "+" 
POLARITY. 13-14.09 THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS ACTIVE. ON OTHER
DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS QUITE AND UNSETTLED.

THE NEXT WEEK IS MOST PROBABILITY OF QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNET-
IC CONDITION, HOWEVER 17-18.09 THE PERFORMANCE RISE IS POSSIBLE 17 
- 18.09  WHEN THE EARTH  ENTERED IN THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF SOLAR 
WIND  FROM TRANS-EQUATORIAL CH "+" POLARITY.  PROBABILITY MAGNETIC 
STORM DO NOT MORE THAN 5%.
 
HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru
                                                          V. Ishkov