----------------------------------------------------------------------------- óòåäîåíåóñþîïå ïôîïóéôåìøîïå þéóìï óïìîåþîùè ðñôåî úá ñî÷áòø 2020 Ç. WÑÎ×. = 3.8 6.4 (n) þôï äá³ô äìñ 126 íåóñãá (2019, éàìø) òáú÷éôéñ ôåëõýåçï 24 óïìîåþîïçï ãéëìá óçìáöåîîïå óòåäîåíåóñþîïå þéóìï ðñôåî W*ÉÀÌØ = 2.1 3.5 - × ÎÏ×ÏÊ ÓÉÓÔÅÍÅ W*ÉÀÎØ = 2.2 3.7 - × ÎÏ×ÏÊ ÓÉÓÔÅÍÅ ó 1 ÉÀÌÑ 2015 Ç. ãÅÎÔÒ × âÒÀÓÓÅÌÅ ÐÅÒÅÛ£Ì ÎÁ ÎÏ×ÕÀ ÓÉÓÔÅÍÕ ÐÏÄÓÞ£ÔÁ ÏÔÎÏ- ÓÉÔÅÌØÎÙÈ ÞÉÓÅÌ ÓÏÌÎÅÞÎÙÈ ÐÑÔÅÎ É, ÐÒÁËÔÉÞÅÓËÉ, ×ÓÅ ÚÎÁÞÅÎÉÑ ÓÍÅÎÉÌÉÓØ ×Ï- ×Ó£Í ÐÒÏÎÕÍÅÒÏ×ÁÎÎÏÍ ÒÑÄÅ ÞÉÓÅÌ ÷ÏÌØÆÁ (ÓÍ. ÐÏ ÓÓÙÌËÅ). [åÖÅÄÎÅ×ÎÏÅ, ÓÒÅÄÎÅÍÅÓÑÞÎÏÅ É ÓÇÌÁÖÅÎÎÏÅ ÚÎÁÞÅÎÉÑ W × ÓÔÁÒÏÊ ÓÉÓÔÅÍÅ ÂÌÉÚËÏÅ Ë ÉÓÔÉÎÎÏÍÕ (× ÆÁÚÅ ÍÉÎÉÍÕÍÁ) ÍÏÖÎÏ ÐÏÌÕÞÉÔØ, ÕÍÎÏÖÁÑ ÎÁ ËÏÜÆÆÉÃÉÅÎÔ k = 0.6] óÌÕÖÂÁ óÏÌÎÃÁ SWPC NOAA × Ó×ÏÉÈ ÅÖÅÎÅÄÅÌØÎÙÈ ÔÁÂÌÉÃÁÈ "Recent Solar Indices" ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/weekly/RecentIndices.txt ÐÒÏÄÏÌÖÁÅÔ ÐÒÉÄÅÒÖÉ×ÁÔØÓÑ ÓÔÁÒÏÊ ÓÉÓÔÅÍÙ, ÐÏÜÔÏÍÕ Ñ ÄÁÀ ÚÁ ÐÒÅÄÙÄÕÝÉÊ ÍÅÓÑà W* ÉÓÐÒÁ×ÌÅÎÎÏÅ, ÅÓÌÉ ÅÓÔØ ÎÅÏÂÈÏÄÉÍÏÓÔØ. îáþáìï 24 ãéëìá óïìîåþîïê áëôé÷îïóôé - ñî÷áòø 2009 Ç., W*min = 1.8 (2.2Î) ÷òåíñ íáëóéíõíá ôåëõýåçï 24 ãéëìá óá - áðòåìø 2014 Ç., W*max = 81.9 (116.4Î) ëïîåã 24 ãéëìá óïìîåþîïê áëôé÷îïóôé (ôïþëá íéîéíõíá) - I - VI 2020 Ç. äÒÕÇÉÅ ÐÒÏÇÎÏÚÙ (ÉÚÍÅÎÅÎÉÑ × ÐÒÏÇÎÏÚÁÈ): SM : SIDC classical method: based on an interpolation of Waldmeier's standard curves; the estimated error ranges from 7% (first month) to 35% (last month) - ÄÅËÁÂÒØ 2019; CM: SIDS combined method: the combined method is a regression technique coupling a dynamo-based estimator with Waldmeier's idea of standard curves, due to K. Denkmayr - ÕÖÅ ÐÒÏÛÌÉ ÍÉÎÉÍÕÍ, ÞÔÏ ÎÅ ÐÒÁ×ÄÁ. NOAA: - ÄÅËÁÂÒØ 2019. îÁÄÏ ÏÔÍÅÔÉÔØ, ÞÔÏ Ó ÓÅÒÅÄÉÎÙ ÎÏÑÂÒÑ 2019 Ç. ÉÚ 5 ÇÒÕÐÐ ÐÑÔÅÎ 4 (ËÏÒÏÔËÏ- ÖÉ×ÕÝÉÅ)ÂÙÌÉ ÇÒÕÐÐÁÍÉ 25 ÃÉËÌÁ óá. îÁÂÌÀÄÁÅÍÙÅ ÍÁÇÎÉÔÎÙÅ ÓÔÒÕËÔÕÒÙ, ÓÏÏÔ×ÅÔÓÔ×ÕÀÝÉÅ 25 óã (> 43 ÎÁ 31.10), ÍÏÖÎÏ Õ×ÉÄÅÔØ http://www.solen.info/solar/cycle25_spots.html. íåöäõîáòïäîïå åöåäîå÷îïå ïôîïóéôåìøîïå þéóìï óïìîåþîùè ðñôåî (× ÎÏ×ÏÊ ÓÉÓÔÅÍÅ) úá ñî÷áòø 2020 Ç. óïçìáóîï äáîîùí 69 óïìîåþîùè ïâóåò÷áôïòéê: 1.. 8 6.. 7 11.. 0 16.. 0 21.. 0 26.. 19í 31.. 12 2.. 13 7.. 4 12.. 0 17.. 0 22.. 0 27.. 14 3.. 14 8.. 3 13.. 0 18.. 0 23.. 0 28.. 12 4.. 12 9.. 14 14.. 0 19.. 0 24.. 12 29.. 12 5.. 14 10.. 3 15.. 0 20.. 0 25.. 12 30.. 12 Minimum : 0 on 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23 óòåäîåíåóñþîùê îáâìàäáåíùê ðïôïë òáäéïéúìõþåîéñ îá 10 ÓÍ (2800 MHz) úá ñî÷áòø 2020 Ç. é óçìáöåîîùê úá éàìø 2019 Ç. FÑÎ×.= 72.2 F*ÉÀÌØ= 69.7 óòåäîåíåóñþîùê ðòåä÷áòéôåìøîùê áÒ-éîäåëó úá ñî÷áòø 2020 Ç. é óçìáöåî- îùê úá éàìø 2019 Ç. ðï äáîîùí çåïíáçîéôîïçï ãåîôòá ÷ ðïôóäáíå áÒ ÑÎ×.= 5 áÒ*ÉÀÌØ= 6.3 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- ïâúïò óïóôïñîéñ óïìîåþîïê áëôé÷îïóôé, çåïüææåëôé÷îùè ñ÷ìåîéê, é éè ÷ïúäåêóô÷éê îá ïëïìïúåíîïå ëïóíéþåóëïå ðòïóôòáîóô÷ï îá ðåòéïä 27.01 - 02.02.2020Ç. é ðòïçîïú îá 03 - 10.02.2020 Ç. ëüòòéîçôïîï÷óëéE ïâïòïôù 2226, 2227 (06,38.01 - 02,72.02.2020) úåíìñ ÷îå üëìéðôéëé: (-2.3 - -2.6) ÇÒÁÄ. (ÚÏÎÁ ÇÅÏÜÆÆÅËÔÉ×ÎÏÓÔÉ S27 - N23) ðñôîïïâòáúï÷áôåìøîáñ áëôé÷îïóôø óïìîãá âùìá îá ïþåîø îéúëïí õòï÷îå óïìîãå ÷óå äîé, îï âåóðñôåîîùí ÷éäéíùê äéóë óïìîãá âùì ôïìøëï 2.02 (17 ÂÅÓÐÑÔÅÎÎÙÈ ÓÕÔÏË × 2020 Ç.). òáóþ³ôîïå, óòåäîåå úîáþåîéå ïôîï- óéôåìøîïçï þéóìá óïìîåþîùè ðñôåî ÷ íåöäõîáòïäîïê óéóôåíå úá ðåòéïä óïóôá÷éìï W=6+2/-6 (Wn= 10+4/-10). îá ÷éäéíïí äéóëå óïìîãá îáâìàäá- ìáóø îåâïìøûáñ, õóôïêþé÷áñ, áëôé÷îáñ (äìñ ðïúäîåê óôáäéé æáúù íéîé- íõíá) çòõððá ðñôåî ó ðïòñäëïí ðïìñòîïóôé ôåëõýåçï óïìîåþîïçï ãéëìá. 1.09 õûìá úá úáðáäîùê ìéíâ. îá óìåäõàýåê îåäåìå ðñôîïïâòáúï÷áôåìøîáñ áëôé÷îïóôø âõäåô ïóôá÷áôø- óñ îá ïþåîø îéúëïí õòï÷îå. CO 2.02 óïìîãå âõäåô âåóðñôåîîùí. óòåä- îåå úá ðåòéïä úîáþåîéå ïôîïóéôåìøîïçï þéóìá óïìîåþîùè ðñôåî W=010+ 5/-10. ÷óðùûåþîáñ áëôé÷îïóôø âùìá îá ïþåîø îéúëïí õòï÷îå, îáâìàäáìéóø 8 ÷óðùûåë ëìáóóï÷ ÷ é á. ôòé ëïòïîáìøîùè ÷ùâòïóá ÷åýåóô÷á (29.01) ïôíåþåîù úá ðåòéïä. --------------------------------------------------------------------- ÷óðùûëé âáììï÷ ïô í1 to tm te ËÏÏÒÄÉÎÁÔÙ ÂÁÌÌ å(1-8A) áï RII/IV CME/to ÒÅÎÔ/ÏÐ J/m-2 ÷ó÷* to te localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl AR CME/to *-×ÙÂÒÏÓÙ ÓÏÌÎÅÞÎÙÈ ×ÏÌÏËÏÎ (DSF); ---------------------------------------------------------------------- îá óìåäõàýåê îåäåìå ÷óðùûåþîáñ áëôé÷îïóôø ïöéäáåôóñ îá ïþåîø îéúëïí õòï÷îå. îá ÷éäéíïí äéóëå óïìîãá îáâìàäáìéóø ëïòïîáìøîùå äùòù ó ëïïòäéîáôáíé: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ÚÎÁË N ËÏÎÅà å ËÏÎÅà S ËÏÎÅà W ËÏÎÅà Sch ïëð R G KA CH - S25L004 S45L029 P S37W15 >9.1 5.02 >3 - SDO, ACE... * - ÎÉÚËÁÑ ÇÅÏÜÆÆÅËÔÉ×ÎÏÓÔØ, ÔÏÌØËÏ ÓÕÂÂÕÒÉ Ó ÄÌÉÔÅÌØÎÏÓÔØÀ <6 Þ. Sch - ÐÌÏÝÁÄØ ëä × % ÐÌÏÝÁÄÉ ×ÉÄÉÍÏÊ ÐÏÌÕÓÆÅÒÙ ×ÂÌÉÚÉ ÃÅÎÔÒÁÌØÎÏÇÏ ÍÅ- ÒÉÄÉÁÎÁ ÐÏ https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - ÎÅÔ ÄÁÎÎÙÈ; ïëð - ÄÁÔÁ ×ÏÚÍÏÖÎÏÇÏ ÇÅÏÍÁÇÎÉÔÎÏÇÏ ×ÏÚÍÕÝÅÎÉÑ × ïëð; R - ÓËÏÌØËÏ ÏÂÏÒÏÔÏ× ÎÁÂÌÀ- ÄÁÅÔÓÑ; G(0-5)-ÇÅÏÍÁÇÎÉÔÎÁÑ ×ÏÚÍÕÝ£ÎÎÏÓÔØ ÎÁ ÐÒÏÛÌÏÍ ÏÂÏÒÏÔÅ (ÓÒÅÄÎÉÅ ÛÉÒoÔÙ); A - ×ÏÚÍÕÝ£ÎÎÁÑ ÇÅÏÍÁÇÎÉÔÎÁÑ ÏÂÓÔÁÎÏ×ËÁ. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ó 1.02/08 UT úåíìñ îáèïäéôóñ ÷ "+" óåëôïòå íåöðìáîåôîïçï ðïìñ, îï úîáë óåëôïòá îåõóôïêþé÷. îá óìåäõàýåê îåäåìå èáòáëôåò ðï÷åäåîéñ úîáëá óåëôïò- îïê óôòõëôõòù îå éúíåîéôóñ. ðòïçîïú õóôïêþé÷ïê óåëôïòîïê çòáîéãù ðïëá îå÷ïúíïöåî éú-úá ðåòåíåîîïóôé (÷ íáìùè ðòåäåìáè) úîáëá ðïìñ ííð ÷ õóìï- ÷éñè çìõâïëïê æáúù íéîéíõíá ôåëõýåçï ãéëìá. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ñî÷áòø 27 28 29 30 31 01 02 æå÷òáìø Wus 012 011 011 011 011 011 000 F10.7 073 074 074 074 074 073 072 èbcg A1.0 A1.3 A1.1 A1.2 A1.4 A1.1 2 4.3E+6 4.1å+6 3.9E+6 3.7E+6 1.1E+7 1.5E+7 9.2E+6 GOES Ie>2 301 151 175 141 334 403 361 pfu Ap 3 5 9 12 8 5 6 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 5 9 12 13 9 11 12 nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 -ÐÉËÏ×ÙÊ ÐÏÔÏË ÜÌÅËÔÒÏÎÏ× Ó å>2 MeV ÚÁ ÓÕÔËÉ × e/(cm2-ster-day); Ie>2-ÍÁËÓÉÍÁÌØÎÁÑ ÉÎÔÅÎÓÉ×ÎÏÓÔØ ÐÏÔÏËÁ ÜÌÅËÔÒÏÎÏ× ÎÁ ÇÅÏÓÔÁÃÉÏÎÁÒÎÙÈ ÏÒÂÉÔÁÈ ÚÁ ÓÕÔËÉ ÐÏ ÄÁÎÎÙÍ GOES 15 × (electrons/cm2-s-sr) - ÓÏÂÙÔÉÑ Ó ÐÏÔÏËÏÍ >/=1000 pfu). ÷ùóïëéê õòï÷åîø ðïôïëá ÷ùóïëïüîåòçéþîùè üìåëôòïîï÷ ó å>2 íÜ÷ çåï- óôáãéïîáòîùè ïòâéôáè îå îáâìàäáìóñ. îá óìåäõàýåê îåäåìå ÷ùóïëéê õòï÷åîø ðïôïëá ÷ùóïëïüîåòçéþîùè üìåëôòï- îï÷ ó å>2 íÜ÷ îå ïöéäáåôóñ. çåïíáçîéôîáñ ïâóôáîï÷ëá îá óòåäîéè ûéòïôáè ïóôá÷áìáóø óðïëïêîïê é óìáâï÷ïúíõý³îîïê ÷óå äîé. îá óìåäõàýåê îåäåìå îáéâïìåå ÷åòïñôîá óðïëïêîáñ é óìáâï÷ïúíõý³îîáñ çåïíáçîéôîáñ ïâóôáîï÷ëá ÷óå äîé. ïâúïò é ðòïçîïú óïóôá÷ìåî ðï íáôåòéáìáí óìõöâù óïìîãá âïõìäåò, óûá http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ ãåîôòá óâïòá é ïâòáâïôëé óïìîåþîùè éîäåëóï÷, âòàóóåìø, âåìøçéñ http://sidc.oma.be/, éúíéòáî (ôòïéãë, òïóóéñ) http://www.izmiran.ru ÷.î. éÛËÏ×